The Arms Trade as Illiberal Trade
Abstract

Ann Markusen
University of Minnesota

In this paper, I chart the proliferation and changing nature of relationships involved in international weapons trade, which I call "diagonalization." I then postulate a set of economic and security outcomes that appear linked to illiberal arms trade practices and to the phenomenon of offsets in particular. These include national hyper-specialization, competitive disadvantages for non-arms sectors, the transformation of defense contractors into trading companies, faster weapons proliferation and an exacerbation of the one-team arms race, world over-spending on arms, and the rise of an international military industrial cartel. I make the case for and marshall the evidence on each. I pay particular attention to the role of "offsets" in the arms trade, because they reveal the failings of a system that is both illiberal and one in which security concerns are subordinate to commercial aspirations. In the present environment, most nations and firms participating in or tolerating offsets are uncertain as to whether they gain or lose from them in the aggregate and are, in any case, skeptical that the growth in their use can be reversed. I argue that the damage from these forms of illiberal arms trade practices, in tandem with lax security oversight, is under-estimated, severe and increasing. Concerted multi-lateral and uni-lateral actions to curtail such practices by major market participants are in order.